Global soybean production is forecast to rise by 7% to over 380 million tonnes in 2022–23. Global supply of oilseeds expected to recover in 2022–23 Canola yield is expected to fall from the record levels of the past 3 years and range at or below the long-term average depending on Australian seasonal conditions. Growers are also expected to increase the share of area planted to cereal crops at the expense of canola, in response to lower canola prices relative to grains. Total area planted to winter crops is forecast to fall as growers respond to drier seasonal conditions. Over the medium term to 2027–28, Australian canola production is expected to fall. Yields are expected to fall in 2023–24, to average 1.8 tonnes per hectare, down 15% from the average of 2.1 tonnes per hectare in 2022–23, but still well above the 10-year average. In 2023–24, rising global oilseed supply is expected to weigh on prices, leading to reduced plantings. In 2022–23, planting increased in response to record prices, which were driven by tight global supply of oilseeds.
Area planted to canola is expected to fall from a record 3.9 million hectares in 2022–23 to 3 million hectares in 2023–24. This is despite heavy spring rainfall and flooding in many regions of eastern Australia that caused significant damage and crop losses for growers in affected areas (see the Australian Crop Report for more detailed analysis).Īustralian canola production is expected to fall by 35% to 5.4 million tonnes in 2023–24 under an expectation of drier conditions. The record harvest reflects an estimated record area planted and exceptional seasonal conditions that boosted yield potential. This is 21% above the previous record of 6.8 million tonnes in 2021–22, and more than double the 10-year average to 2021–22. Figure 1.2 Australian canola exports, by destination, 2012–13 to 2021–22Īustralian canola production is forecast to reach a record high of 8.3 million tonnes in 2022–23. The clean energy transition will support EU demand for energy sources such as biodiesel and thus its feedstocks, including Australian canola. The European Union has consistently accounted for over half of all Australian canola exports since 2015–16 (Figure 1.2). The European Union is expected to remain a key market for Australian canola over the medium term. Exports are expected to fall by 27% to 5.1 million tonnes in 2023–24 due to lower production, but will be supported by high stock levels from the 2022–23 harvest. Despite being a 34% fall from 2022–23, the export value is expected to remain well above average and would be the third highest value on record. The value of exports is forecast to fall to $4 billion in 2023–24, due to falling production and prices. The value of Australian canola exports is expected to reach a record high of $6.1 billion in 2022–23, reflecting elevated world prices and high volumes of production and exports. Figure 1.1 Real value of Australian canola production, 2007–08 to 2027–28 Under the drier scenario, the value of Australian canola production is lower due to weaker global oilseed prices and lower production in Australia. Falling prices and production are expected to drive the value of canola production lower to range between $2.4 and $3.6 billion, depending on the assumed seasonal conditions in Australia and global demand for oilseeds. Australian canola production is projected to return to average levels as a result of less rainfall compared to the last 3 years (see the Agricultural Overview for scenario assumptions). This is driven by decreasing canola prices due to higher global oilseed supply. Over the medium term to 2027–28, the value of canola production is projected to fall further in real terms. Australian canola production is forecast to decrease with a return to drier seasonal conditions. Canola prices are expected to be pushed down by rising global oilseed supply because of major competitors recovering from drought conditions over the past 2 years. In 2023–24, the value of canola production is forecast to fall by 37% to $3.8 billion due to falling prices and lower production (Figure 1.1).
Falling canola prices are expected to be more than offset by record production in Australia, which is estimated to reach 8.3 million tonnes. The value of Australian canola production is forecast to remain at record levels in 2022–23 at $6.1 billion, surpassing the previous record of $6 billion in 2021–22.
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